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Monday, 5 November 2012

My Predictions

Posted on 21:58 by Unknown
In ten minutes, it will be election day here.

They've already voted in Dixville Knox, and soon will be elsewhere.

As somebody who loves to watch politics the way that others obsessed over football/baseball stats, I thought I'd put forth how I think things will go tomorrow.

Using the map at the great 270towin.com site, here is my map:


We'll see how it really works out.

If you look at the state polls, there is a pretty clear sense that the ones trending blue are trending more blue at this point. Things seem to be breaking Obama's way. (Having said all this, I can't for the life of me figure out how Nate Silver sees Florida breaking for Obama...)

I keep hearing many folks predicting that Romney will win, because Republican enthusiasm is higher. But that doesn't seem to be the case, overall. And independents don't seem to be breaking to Romney in huge numbers.

Both sides seem pretty confident, but the math seems to favor Obama. Anyway, just wanted to be on record. We'll see how closely this resembles the actual result.

It's definitely going to be an interesting and historic day.
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